Data as of September 2026: Dubai Land Department (DLD) sales register up to 14 September 2026, cross-checked against the live DLD open-data API pulled on 24 September 2026. This page is updated monthly; each closed month adds a row.
"Dubai property crash 2026" is one of the most searched phrases about the market this year. So here is what the registered transactions actually show, with no commentary on causes and no forecasts.
The short version. From March 2026, the number of ready-apartment sales across Dubai dropped well below 2025 levels: 37 % fewer deals between March and August. The median price per square metre did not follow. For January–August 2026 it was AED 15,072/m², against AED 14,456/m² for the same months of 2025, i.e. 4.3 % higher. Volume fell; the median price per square metre held.
What the numbers cover
- Source: the Dubai Land Department sales register (Dubai Pulse export, 1.36 million transactions from 2004 to 14 September 2026). For a second opinion we downloaded the DLD open data ourselves on 24 September 2026.
- Scope: sales of ready apartments only (Ready, Unit/Flat), residential, all of Dubai, rows without data-quality flags. No villas, land or off-plan.
- Metric: median of (price ÷ area) for each month's deals.
Keep the scope in mind. Ready apartments are the smaller slice of the market: in 2025 off-plan made up 68 % of residential registrations in the same register (128,567 off-plan vs 59,494 ready). A fall in ready-apartment deals is a fall in the secondary market, not in all of Dubai's transactions.
For readers who think in square feet: AED 15,072/m² is about AED 1,400 per sq ft (÷ 10.7639), up from about AED 1,343 per sq ft in January–August 2025. In US dollars, at the dirham peg of 3.6725, that is roughly USD 4,100 per m².
Month by month: 2026 against 2025
DLD sales register, ready apartments, all of Dubai. Percentages are our arithmetic from the figures shown.
| Month | Deals 2025 | Deals 2026 | Change in deals | Median AED/m² 2025 | Median AED/m² 2026 | Change in median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3,137 | 3,333 | +6 % | 14,303 | 14,990 | +4.8 % |
| Feb | 3,645 | 3,896 | +7 % | 14,274 | 15,963 | +11.8 % |
| Mar | 3,548 | 2,363 | −33 % | 14,843 | 14,508 | −2.3 % |
| Apr | 4,046 | 2,233 | −45 % | 14,811 | 15,609 | +5.4 % |
| May | 4,176 | 1,837 | −56 % | 14,507 | 14,417 | −0.6 % |
| Jun | 3,373 | 2,326 | −31 % | 14,673 | 15,073 | +2.7 % |
| Jul | 3,878 | 2,728 | −30 % | 14,038 | 14,660 | +4.4 % |
| Aug | 3,084 | 2,424 | −21 % | 14,238 | 14,980 | +5.2 % |
| Sep (partial) | 3,436 | 985 | not comparable | 14,312 | 14,911 | +4.2 % |
January–August totals: 2025 — 28,887 deals, median AED 14,456/m². 2026 — 21,140 deals, median AED 15,072/m². That is 27 % fewer deals and a 4.3 % higher median.
Reading the table
- The year started strong. January and February 2026 beat the previous year on both volume and median.
- Volume dropped from March. The low point was May: 1,837 deals against 4,176 a year earlier (−56 %). By August the gap had narrowed to −21 %. March to August combined: 13,911 deals vs 22,105 (−37 %).
- The median held. It was higher than 2025 in six of eight months. In March (−2.3 %) and May (−0.6 %) it was slightly lower. Even the weakest month of 2026 (May, AED 14,417/m²) was above the weakest month of 2025 (July, AED 14,038/m²).
- September is incomplete. The register stops on 14 September 2026, so 985 deals cannot be compared with a full month. The half-month median is indicative only.
For a longer view: January–August 2024 had 26,757 deals at a median of AED 13,215/m². So 2026 has fewer ready-apartment deals than even 2024 (−21 %), with a median per square metre 14 % higher.
Why a median price per m² is not a price index
This is the caveat that matters most before you call it a crash or a boom.
- The mix changes every month. If more deals happen in Downtown or Palm Jumeirah and fewer in International City, the median per m² rises even if no individual flat got more expensive, and the reverse is also true.
- Fewer deals mean more noise. May 2026's median comes from 1,837 deals, May 2025's from 4,176. A 1–2 % move at these volumes can simply be a different mix.
- A city-wide median is not your flat. Building, floor, view and condition drive the price of a specific unit.
So the defensible reading is narrow: DLD transactions show no sign of a lower median price per square metre in 2026, while the number of ready-apartment sales since March is clearly below last year. That is all the data supports.
Cross-check: the live DLD API
The register is a third-party export of official DLD data. To avoid relying on a single copy, we pulled sales directly from the DLD open-data portal on 24 September 2026 (sales, ready, residential, apartments).
| Month 2026 | Deals (API) | Median AED/m² (API) | Deals (register) | Median AED/m² (register) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3,282 | 15,339 | 3,333 | 14,990 |
| Feb | 3,593 | 16,364 | 3,896 | 15,963 |
| Mar | 2,224 | 14,848 | 2,363 | 14,508 |
| Apr | 2,106 | 15,671 | 2,233 | 15,609 |
| May | 1,743 | 14,520 | 1,837 | 14,417 |
| Jun | 2,245 | 15,189 | 2,326 | 15,073 |
| Jul | 2,684 | 14,308 | 2,728 | 14,660 |
| Aug | 2,373 | 14,913 | 2,424 | 14,980 |
| Sep (to 24 Sep) | 1,760 | 15,024 | — | — |
The API shows 2–8 % fewer deals per month because its transaction-type filter differs. For 1 January–13 September 2026, 22,403 of 24,441 register rows (92 %) matched the API on date, price and area. The picture is the same: a drop in volume from March and a median between roughly AED 14,300 and 16,400/m². On the API figures, March (14,848) and May (14,520) sit level with the same months of 2025.
Why 2025 purchases show a loss in our game
Our game, the Dubai Property Pack, lets you "buy" real medians by area and year. Of the 33 cards for 2025, 24 end in the red. That is not evidence of falling prices.
The result of a "buy" move is: price today − purchase-year price − DLD fee. The DLD transfer fee is 4 % of the price (per DLD; formally split 2 % seller and 2 % buyer, in practice usually paid by the buyer). Buy in 2025, and less than a year of price growth has not yet covered it.
On prices alone, across the 33 objects in the game, today's median (the 12 months 24 September 2025 – 23 September 2026) is above the 2025 median for 19 objects, equal for 7 and below for 7. The median change is about +1 %.
Example: a one-bedroom in Dubai Marina. The 2025 median was AED 1,520,000; today it is AED 1,525,000, slightly up. The 4 % fee was AED 60,800, so the "buy" result is −AED 55,800 (−4 %), about −USD 15,200. The price held; the fee made the loss.
The worst 2025 card is a one-bedroom in JLT: AED 1,200,000 then, AED 1,130,000 now, a −10 % result. Here the median really is lower (−5.8 %) and the fee adds the rest. Cases like that exist, but they are the minority. You can try every 2025 card in the game.
What this means in practice
- If you are selling: city-wide figures do not price your unit. Look at recent deals in your own building for comparable sizes.
- If you are buying: negotiation happens on a specific unit, not on the Dubai average. The register does not show a general discount per square metre for ready apartments.
- If you bought in 2025: a first-year paper loss is mostly the 4 % DLD fee, not a price move. Any exit calculation needs all entry and exit costs.
For the long history since 2008, see Dubai property price history by year. For results by year of entry, read was it worth buying in Dubai. For one area in depth, see Dubai Marina: sale prices by year, and for rents, rental yield by area.
This is historical transaction data, not investment advice and not a forecast. Past results do not indicate future ones. A city or area median is not the price of any particular apartment.
Before you commit
An average for Dubai is no substitute for checking the unit itself: comparable deals in the building, title documents, outstanding service charges, any restrictions on sale. LAWERA's real estate team reviews the property and paperwork before you pay a deposit. To see the full cost of a purchase on top of the price — DLD fee, trustee, title deed — use the purchase costs calculator, and see buying costs in Dubai for the detail.
FAQ
Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026?
Not on the median per square metre. For ready apartments across Dubai, the January–August 2026 median in the DLD register was AED 15,072/m², 4.3 % above January–August 2025. What fell was the number of deals: 37 % fewer from March to August.
Is there a Dubai property crash in 2026?
The transaction data does not show a price crash. It shows a sharp drop in ready-apartment sales volume from March 2026, with May the lowest month, and a median price per m² at or above 2025 levels in most months.
Why is the median not the same as a price index?
Because it is calculated over whatever sold that month. A shift toward pricier or cheaper areas moves the median without any flat changing value.
How often is this page updated?
Monthly, after each new DLD data pull. Current version: register to 14 September 2026, DLD API to 24 September 2026.
Can I value my apartment from these figures?
No. You need recent deals in your building and for similar units.